Ryanair has reassured stakeholders about its jet fuel supplies for the immediate future, but CEO Michael O'Leary now warns that a real risk of tension could emerge as early as June if the Middle East fuel crisis persists. Speaking at Ryanair's headquarters near Dublin, O'Leary summarized the precarious situation: "All oil companies say there is no supply risk in May, but we are not yet sure about June." Europe typically holds seven to eight weeks of aviation fuel stocks, which currently buffers shocks, but the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and logistical disorganization are changing the landscape. According to O'Leary, Ryanair has secured guaranteed full deliveries from its suppliers through the end of May, albeit at a significantly higher cost—an estimated $50 million in additional expenses for April alone, with a similar amount expected in May. Over a full year, O'Leary estimates the airline could pay "up to $600 million more" if oil prices remain around $150 per barrel. For June, July, and August, visibility is limited: "I cannot guarantee 100% our supplies beyond the end of May. For June, July, August, nobody is sure of anything." He cites a "real, albeit modest, risk that 10, 20, or 25%" of deliveries could be threatened in May-June if the conflict continues. In continental Europe, major oil companies are still supplying key hubs, but early signs of tension have already appeared in some markets, notably the UK, where O'Leary estimates a "10-15%" risk that a few airports could run short if the crisis extends into summer. He emphasizes that the deterioration is gradual—not a sudden rupture, but a weakening of certain platforms due to limited local stocks and more complex jet fuel logistics. For now, Ryanair maintains its full summer schedule, but O'Leary acknowledges that trade-offs will be necessary if fuel flows tighten in June-July. "If this conflict continues, we will have to start considering flight cancellations as soon as a risk weighs on supply in June, July, or August," he explained at a London conference. Internal scenarios range from a 5-10% reduction in the program if shortages remain localized, to deeper cuts at certain bases in case of prolonged disruption—potentially threatening up to 25% of fuel needs. For passengers, the kerosene crisis is already translating into upward pressure on fares, which Ryanair expects to rise by at least 3% over the summer season due to a combination of capacity constraints and higher oil prices. O'Leary advises customers to "book now" rather than wait, predicting prices will climb if seat supply constraints materialize. He has also hinted that if a flight is canceled due to lack of fuel at the airport, it would be considered an "extraordinary circumstance" under EU regulations, excluding compensation but still allowing ticket refunds. In typical fashion, O'Leary also targeted competitors, suggesting that Wizz Air and airBaltic are vulnerable: "There is a real risk that Wizz Air will go bankrupt in September, October. Lessors are not ready to lend it money or give it more aircraft." He added, "If an airline goes bankrupt—and the two likely candidates currently are airBaltic or Wizz—that would change the game." The warnings from Ryanair come against a broader backdrop of energy shock for global aviation, as the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupt major flows of refined products to Europe. Imports of kerosene from other regions, including the United States, have increased but struggle to fully compensate for the disruption of usual routes. Several European airlines have already adjusted their schedules in response to these tensions and the surge in jet fuel prices, while governments and the European Commission work on plans to reduce dependence on the Gulf, share stocks more effectively, and better coordinate supply priorities among member states.