**French Aviation Faces a Perfect Storm: Jet Fuel, Taxes, and Demand Weaken** The French air transport sector is bracing for a turbulent autumn, even as it manages to navigate the summer season amid skyrocketing jet fuel prices fueled by the Middle East crisis. Industry leaders warn that the combination of rising operating costs, fiscal pressure, and fragile passenger demand could leave the sector severely weakened by year-end. **Summer Under Control, but at a Cost** For now, professionals are reassuring travelers about the summer holidays. "There will be no jet fuel shortages during the summer period," said Thomas Juin, president of the Union of French and Francophone Airports (UAF & FA), describing fuel supply as "under control" despite price volatility. Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot confirmed on Europe 1 radio that airlines would maintain their flight schedules for July and August. "Flight plans will be respected, and French people can go wherever they wish," he promised. Airlines have already adjusted capacity by reducing frequencies or modifying routes, but no mass cancellations are planned. However, ticket price increases are inevitable: the surge in oil and jet fuel prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, is gradually being passed on to passengers, especially on long-haul routes. **Jet Fuel at Rarely Seen Levels** Since the conflict erupted in late February, jet fuel has hit levels rarely observed. The price jumped from $800 per ton to around $1,500 in the first weeks, then climbed further to $1,600. This spike is now the main disruptor for air transport. Carriers that hedged some of their fuel purchases are better protected in the short term, but that buffer will not last indefinitely. "We'll get through the summer, but the sector will not come out unscathed," Juin warned. "The entire sector will emerge very weakened. What we fear is a backlash in autumn," he added, pointing to a possible reduction in capacity and a drop in traffic. **The Threat of a Scissor Effect in Autumn** If the Middle East crisis and hydrocarbon tensions persist, French aviation fears a "scissor effect" from autumn onward. On one side, operating costs are soaring with more expensive fuel and higher taxes; on the other, household demand remains constrained by inflation, limiting airlines' ability to fully pass on these extra costs through ticket prices. Airlines may be forced to cut flight programs further, close the least profitable routes, or slow development plans. Some analysts even warn of a risk of financial distress or bankruptcy for the most exposed carriers across Europe if fuel prices remain high. **Calls to Ease Fiscal Pressure** In response, industry representatives are urging the French government to reconsider certain tax measures. Juin specifically called for the repeal of the tripling of the solidarity tax on airline tickets (TSBA), which he described as unsustainable in the current climate. "We cannot let French air transport survive with such an accumulation of constraints while international competition remains very strong," he argued. The sector also stresses its ongoing commitment to decarbonization through increased use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and fleet renewal, but notes that these investments require profitability to sustain. **Outlook: Summer Smooth, Autumn Bumpy** For now, passengers can expect a smooth summer, but the landing in autumn could be much rougher for French airlines. The combination of high fuel costs, tax hikes, and weak demand creates a perfect storm that may reshape the industry landscape in the months ahead.